Activity #1: Hurricane Geography Review the section of this web site that deals with the science of hurricanes, then answer the following questions:   1. Which part of Canada has the highest probability of experiencing a hurricane? a. Nova Scotia b. Southern Ontario c. New Brunswick d. Quebec e. Newfoundland   2. Which month has the highest frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic? a. June b. August c. September d. October e. December   3. You are considering taking a Caribbean cruise, but are not sure when to go. Looking at the hurricane season in the Caribbean, which months would not be a good idea? Why?   4. Graph the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic during the last fifty years. Colour El Niño years red and La Niña years blue. Which years have the most hurricanes - red or blue years? Which decade had the most hurricanes? Were there more red or blue years in that decade?     Activity #2: Hurricane Juan of 2003 In 2003 a category 2 hurricane hit Nova Scotia, causing death and destruction. Halifax was hit with the worst disaster since the Halifax Explosion. Research Hurricane Juan by doing the following: 1. Visit the following web sites: Canadian Hurricane Centre's Report on Hurricane Juan and Hurricane Juan Summary 2. Write an essay about the storm, addressing the following questions: a. How much damage was created by the storm? What were the different types of damage and loss that Halifax suffered as a result of this storm? b. What human factors contributed to the devastating effects of this hurricane? c. Can you imagine ways in which the damaging effects of the hurricane could have been better mitigated?     Activity #3: Hurricane Prediction 1. Visit the following two web sites, both of which contain scientific predictions for future hurricane seasons: Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: Atlantic Hurricane Outlook and Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity 2. Next, answer the following questions: a. Compare the forecast of Professor Gray with that of the government (NOAA) for the summer 2004 hurricane season in the Atlantic. How are the forecasts similar? In what ways do they differ? b. Describe some of the indicators that scientists used to assess the probability of hurricane occurrence in the summer 2004 season. c. How does the fact that 2004 had neutral ENSO conditions influence these forecasts? d. Do some research to determine how many hurricanes have occurred during the 2004 season. Compare the number and strength of actual events with the scientists' predictions. How accurate do the predictions appear to be? Can you determine what factors might account for possible discrepancies?