The Fat Tail
Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat
Civil wars, acts of terror, seizures of private industries - the world is a dangerous place for investors. Indeed, it is more dangerous today than ten or twenty years ago, because of the growing importance of emerging and frontier markets. Even many relatively passive or risk averse investors are
exposed in places like Turkey, China, and Brazil. But while they recognize the importance of political risks, until now they have not the right tools to analyze, evaluate, and predict them.
This groundbreaking book is the first to both identify the wide range of political risks that
global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it explains that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is
easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more
precarious regions like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Brazil, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of
private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how
political risk analysis works - and when it does not.
Authored by Ian Bremmer (author of the bestselling The J-Curve) and Preston Keat, the president and research director (respectively) of Eurasia Group, the world's largest political risk consultancy, Machiavelli and the Markets is an
indispensable guide for anyone involved in the international economy, from major multinational corporations to small businesses simply trying to understand the risks that come with exports and imports.
Readership : Readers of The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Businessweek, The New Republic, investors, policymakers; students and scholars of comparative politics, international relations, and political risk.
Introduction
Part 1: The Universe of Political Risks
1. Geopolitical Risks: Risks rising from great power rivalries and international wars
2. Terrorism: Risks arising from terrorist group
3. Capital Markets: Risks from government's macroeconomic policies (defaults,
capital controls)
4. Expropriations: Risks from a government's takeover of private property
5. Regulatory Risks from government's changing the rules of the game
6. Domestic instability: Risks from government weakness and potential for internal strife
7. Unknown Risks: "Black
swans," "known unknowns " and events that cannot be necessarily conceived
Part II: Analysis and Mitigation of Risks
8. Methodology and Social Sciences Chapter
9. Reporting of Risks
10. Mitigation of Risks
Conclusion
There are no Instructor/Student Resources available at this time.
Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group and author of the bestselling The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (http://www.economist.com/books/ displaystory.cfm?story id=7854060). He is a regular contributor to The International Herald Tribune and Contributing
Editor for The National Interest. Preston Keat is Director of Research at Eurasia Group, and a commentator on CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC.
Special Features
- Penned by renowned figures in the area of political risk: Bremmer and Keat are the president and director of research for the Eurasia Group, the top firm for political-risk consulting, and Bremmer's recent book on political stability, The J-Curve, was a bestseller for Simon &
Schuster.
- Provides the first systematic and methodologically sound approach to political risk for both investors and policymakers.
- Distills and demystifies complex analytic tool sets and makes them relevant to the real world of commerce and policy.
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